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Student enrollment expected to increase 14-23%

If Hazel Reinhardt's enrollment projects are as accurate as they were in 2005, New Richmond School District's student enrollment is going to jump 14 to 23 percent over the next 10 years.

And that doesn't even take the new Stillwater River Crossing Bridge into account, said Morrie Veilleux, district administrator.

Reinhardt, a consultant based in the Twin Cities, completed the enrollment projection based solely on St. Croix County's birth rates.

Reinhardt projects enrollment numbers of up to 3,643 students during the 2022-23 school year.

While some might question the accuracy of those numbers, Veilleux said Reinhardt's 2005 projection got the same reaction and the district has held true to those numbers. The district has grown 19 percent over the last 10 years, he said.

"Cohort survival" methodology is the most common and robust model for projecting enrollment, according to Reinhardt's report. Projections are made by counting the size of individual classes of students and then estimating the number of deaths, which typically is very low among school-aged children. Migration into the district also is considered.

Current K-12 enrollment is 2,954. By 2017, projected K-12 enrollment will jump by 240 to 395 students, based on the cohort survival projection method.

In 2022, enrollment will range from 3,244 to 3,630 -- an increase of 419 to 689 students.

To view the entire enrollment projection report, visit